While Nigerian shoppers have been stockpiling essential goods and food, sex toy sellers in Lagos and Abuja say their sales have also shot up.

Findings by PREMIUM TIMES have shown that in most online stores where sex toys are sold, the items are either in short supply or sold out.

A cross-section of sex toy sellers told this newspaper on Wednesday that sales began to pick up two weeks before President Muhammadu Buhari announced the 14-day lockdown in Lagos, Ogun and the nation’s capital, Abuja.

They also said they are overwhelmed by the demand for their products amid the Coronavirus lockdown.

“The pandemic has been challenging generally but it has not affected the sex toy market. Pre lockdown in Lagos and Abuja, the weekend before it started, sales really skyrocketed. I was getting orders, left right and centre,” said Lami, owner of Sextoysnaij.

“It felt like people knew there was going to be a lockdown and they had to be ready. The lockdown started on Tuesday, on that day and Wednesday, I had just four orders. By Thursday, sales increased again. I sold out on half of my stock. My vibrators and wands were sold out.

“It went above average and beyond.”

Hannah Jonathan, a sex toy store owner popularly known as Soulspice the Sex goddess, said she exhausted her supplies as early as 10.00 a.m. two weeks ago.

Ms Jonathan also said she has witnessed an over 50 per cent increase in sales since the lockdown was enforced, a development, she said, she never saw coming.

Before the lockdown came into full effect, the sex toy retailer said she ships out an average of about 100 sex toys to online customers in Lagos, Abuja, Port-Harcourt, Kaduna, Kano, Ibadan, Delta, Edo and Akwa-Ibom States. She said in Lagos State alone, the orders were triple the amount that she ships outside the state weekly.

“The boom in sex toy sales is a good one for us because Nigerians don’t rest. Most low and middle-class citizens don’t even go on vacation, so this has been the best time for us all,” she noted.

“A lot of people now have better sex lives now because they have time to explore and be adventurous with one another. The lockdown has helped reduce stress, which is a major problem, – and this would boost people’s libido as well as boost fertility in women.”

Married couples too

The sex toy merchants sampled by this newspaper admitted that in particular, the demand for sex games and toys by couples has spiked.

“It makes me happy that Nigerians are satisfying their urges at this difficult time when people feel vulnerable,” said Mathew Okon, co-owner of Hot Pleasurz, an Abuja-based sex toy shop.

“I’m happy that many marriages will be strengthened at a time like this because hopefully, they are having more sex while side chics are left lonely.

The Sexgoddes also said she has recorded an increase in patronage by married couples, especially men who live far away from their wives. She said patronage has risen more than fourfold since mid-March compared with the same period before the lockdown.

“Trust me, married people buy from us more. Men buy for their wives, especially when those who are not always home to sexually please their wives,” she said.

“Couples have also been making good use of the opportunity of the lockdown to spice up their sex lives and rediscover their bodies. Apart from toys suitable for single people and couples that live apart, couples have also been purchasing sex toys to help make their sexual relationships more interesting.”

Ms Lami of Sextoynaij also said her patrons outside of Nigeria are mostly married women.

“There’s a particular state, I don’t want to be specific, only one of my customers there is single,” she noted.

Another sex toy seller, Adeola Badmus, owner of Sextoy9ja said she has also experienced a very high increase in sales in the past weeks. She ascribed the boost in sales to two factors.

“The first thing is people being alone right now, especially the single ones that can’t have access to their significant others, so they resort to more self-love(Masturbation).

Secondly, because we have a strong presence online and people spend more time online now, more people have been seeing our social media pages and reaching out to get these toys.”

Ms Badmus added that people (men) order more of female toys in recent times, specifically 80 per cent of her clients.

She said there has been a balance in the gender of people who order her products. According to her, most of her male clients buy female sex toys for their female friends and wives because people are more open to using sex toys.

The Sexgoddes also added that a lot of sex toys are actually designed for couples and not singles. According to her, people, religion, culture, and traditional beliefs have made it impossible for most Nigerian couples to accept themMs Badmus said one of the sex toys designed for married couples is the finger vibrator.

She said, “Men can use this by wearing it on their fingertips and gently caress her breasts, clitoris, and labia. It can also be used to stimulate her G-spot and do body massage.

“There are others like the wand and clitoral massagers that allow the woman to pleasure herself while the man pumps in using a sex position that allows the couple to look into each other’s eyes.”

Shortage of sex toys

However, despite the boost in sales, the lockdown has also affected the sex toy business in Nigeria negatively, as sellers have been unable to bring in new toys because of the Coronavirus lockdown.

The Sexgoddes, who said she ships her sex toys from China and the United States, lamented the shortage of sex toys, not only at her store but in other sex toy shops as well.

Sex experts in Denmark say the sales of sex toys in the country have more than doubled after Danes were told to stay at home to limit the spread of the virus.

Source: Nigeria: Sex Toy Sellers Record Boom in Sales

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Africa, Health, COVID-19

The African Development Bank and partners are set to host an online #AfricaVsVirus Challenge from 16 to 19 April 2020. The 72-hour competition is a global hackathon – or “ideathon” – to develop effective solutions to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Challenge is open to entrepreneurs, companies, civil society organizations and governments with bankable solutions or ventures to address the pandemic. The top pitches will be eligible to win thousands of dollars’ worth of financial, technical and skills-learning support to advance their implementation. Details on competition qualifications and methods of participation can be found here: www.africavsvirus.com.  

“COVID-19’s impact on the global economy is pushing millions of people, especially women and young people, into unemployment, underemployment and working poverty. Part of our response is  the #AfricaVsVirus Challenge,” said Tapera Muzira, Coordinator of the African Development Bank’s Jobs for Youth in Africa Strategy. “This online Challenge will channel youth creativity and innovation to real life solutions that mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on health, the economy, SMEs and jobs,” he added.

The #AfricaVsVirus Challenge opens on Thursday, 16 April at 6:30 pm CET and runs non-stop through to Sunday, 19 April at 6:30 pm CET. Entrants can choose to submit ideas under one of the following sectors: public health and epidemiology; vulnerable populations; businesses and economy; community; education; entertainment; government support; environment and energy; and food security. Alternatively, they may choose their own theme. 

An expert panel will select the twenty best solutions submitted, and these finalists will be invited to take part in a one-month educational program by Seedstars. The top three winning ideas will receive up to $50,000 worth of in-kind prizes. 

#AfricaVsVirus Challenge is part of the Bank’s strategy to support young African entrepreneurs – especially young women entrepreneurs – and their SMEs and startups by providing an enabling environment to innovate appropriate solutions to the COVID-19 crisis. The Bank’s Innovation and Entrepreneurship Lab, working closely with the Youth Entrepreneurship & Innovation Multi-Donor Trust Fund is hosting the ideathon, with partners Seedstars, digital agency WAAT and development consultants Luvent Consulting.

Rollout of the Challenge follows the African Development Bank’s launch on 8 April of a $10 billion COVID-19 response facility, and the sale of a record $3 billion debt issue last month to raise financing to help African countries confront the pandemic, which is already wreaking havoc on their economies.

Interested parties can follow the global conversation about the competition by following #AfricaVsVirus on social media, or by logging on to www.africavsvirus.com.

Source: The African Development Bank and its partners want your ideas for beating the COVID-19 pandemic

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Africa, South Africa, Manufacturing, Health, COVID-19

South African company ready to roll out low-cost ventilators for the African market



EPCM is an engineering, procurement and construction company specialising in oil and gas projects in Africa and beyond.

EPCM’s co-founder and CEO, Tom Cowan, came up with the idea for the ventilator following a visit to his sister, a medical doctor, just before South Africa went into lockdown. She voiced her concern regarding the shortage of ventilators, both in South Africa and the rest of the continent.

“At that stage I wasn’t even 100% sure what a ventilator does. We talked about it and she explained it to me, and it sounded like something very similar to a gas system that we usually design,” he says.

After some internet research, Cowan came to the conclusion that designing a ventilator wasn’t “too complex”.

“About two hours after that, the first concept of a ventilator was born, and maybe two hours after that we started with some more detailed design … And it took about two, three days for us to completely understand what we wanted to build and do a few prototypes.”

The company deliberately kept the design very basic to reduce costs and ensure that it can be made from materials and machines currently available in most African countries. “The whole ventilator can be cut from a perspex plate … and then you basically have to add the electronic component to that and then it will work,” he says.

“We’ve specifically designed it to be easy to manufacture … Our design can be made from perspex, it can be made from stainless steel. If you have nothing else, you can even make it from wood.”

“The whole idea behind this was to get it rapidly manufactured. We’ve partnered with a laser cutting company in South Africa which is able to cut many of the sheets in a day, and we can just assemble,” Cowan adds.

A ventilator is a machine that provides mechanical ventilation by moving breathable air into and out of the lungs, to deliver breaths to a patient who is physically unable to breathe, or breathing insufficiently. Modern ventilators are computerised microprocessor-controlled machines.

Cowan says the Covid-19 outbreak has prompted many people to design simple mechanical ventilators, but these often lack the ability to precisely control the flow of gas. “Our system is designed so that you can physically set the breaths per minute, volume per breath, maximum pressure and flow for the machine,” he explains

Whereas modern ventilators used in top hospitals cost anything from $20,000 and upwards, EPCM’s model will go for less than $2,000.

The company will this week start with the production of 50 units for delivery to Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Ghana. Cowan says these countries have less stringent regulations around the approval of medical devices than South Africa, where EPCM is yet to receive the go-ahead for its ventilator.

“If you want to get a ventilator approved in South Africa, you need European Union approval … The regulations and the hurdles that you have to jump over to get these ventilators certified is actually the biggest concern and probably the reason why there is not a lot of innovation or new companies starting to focus on the ventilator industry.”

According to Cowan, the South African authorities are however relaxing some of their regulations in response to the Coronavirus crisis. “They have to. It is either, relax some of the regulations or have a lot of people die.”

Commenting on the effects of Covid-19 on EPCM’s core business, Cowan said while most of the company’s construction projects are currently standing still, its consulting, engineering and procurement work continues.

The company is, however, seeing an impact from the dramatic weakening of the South African rand against major currencies. The currency has weakened from R14.76/$1 on 5 February to R19.05/$1 today. “Once you have a crisis, emerging [market] currencies are all going down. I think it is important that you have US dollar-based income, which we do have. But we also have procurement with fixed-price contracts in the European, Asian and American markets, which definitely provides challenges when you have our currency fluctuating like it is now,” he explains.


Further reading

[March 2020] Kenya-based investor sees opportunity in Covid-19 crisis
[March 2020] Africa: crisis a once in a decade opportunity
[March 2020] Coronavirus will hit African economies hard

Source: South African company ready to roll out low-cost ventilators for the African market

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Africa: crisis a once in a decade opportunity

By Rob Eloff, managing partner, Lateral Capital

As one of our portfolio CEOs in Kenya said this week: “It would be a shame to let a crisis go to waste.”

Valuable companies will emerge from Africa irrespective of the Covid-19 pandemic because innovation happens in a backdrop of scarcity in normal times. It will pay to continue to focus on frontier markets while the world is melting down because this innovation is likely to continue at more attractive valuations, with the potential to deliver greater impact than elsewhere.

Funding will slow down, in Asia venture funding slowed ~30% for two consecutive years after the ’02 SARS epidemic and in Latin America funding was down 50% following the 2015 Zika virus outbreak. In the years that followed these crises, the world got to know Alibaba, JD.Com and Nubank.

In Africa technology emerges as a response to everyday challenges

Well known examples include Kenya’s M-Pesa, Africa’s decentralised renewable energy revolution and the prevalence of remote learning in Nigeria.

In his upcoming book “Out Innovate: How Global Entrepreneurs from Delhi to Detroit are Rewriting the Rules of Silicon Valley“, author and friend of Lateral, Alex Lazarow reminds us how companies operate and scale in markets without economic stability or a supportive startup ecosystem.

“Start-ups operating amid conditions of relative scarcity, where capital and talent are hard to come by and economic shocks are more likely to occur, face unique pressures. Yet many have become superstars in their own right. Their formula involves a more balanced approach to growth, a focus on solutions to real problems, and investment in their workforce for the long term. These ‘frontier innovators’ hold important lessons for companies of all sizes and in all locations – including Silicon Valley itself.”

Africa breeds anti-fragility

In the African context, key tenets of survival include:


Products and services that solve essential problems vs cyclical trends
  • Measuring profitability from the outset rather than a singular focus on growth
  • Enabling legacy infrastructure to work better, rather than simply focusing on disruption
  •  
  • At this strange moment in history, we look to the technology community in Africa for leadership through innovation.
  •  
  • This week we learned of the Nairobi and Lagos technology community responses to Covid-19.
  • Portfolio company Koko Networks has re-calibrated its supply chain which spans across India and Kenya to convert ethanol for cooking fuel to sanitation products as part of a large scale collaboration to avert a humanitarian crisis in Kenya’s urban centres. 4G Capital is also part of the response via its working capital products to essential services for SMEs during the lockdown. Meanwhile portfolio company Lynk, which matches informal workers to demand for their products and services is working to match its B2B team with services delivery challenges. As we know, unless you solve for the poorest of the poor, transmission is a given.
  •  
  • Lagos based Medsaf has been a leading provider of first response supplies to pharmacies and hospitals.
  • Aside from our existing portfolio companies, a founder that we are following closely in Nigeria has a clear response to Covid19. Lifebank founder and CEO Temi Giwa-Tubosun has launched a national Quip register for critical healthcare infrastructure to fight Covid-19 across 200 Nigerian hospitals. Lifebank is then connecting suppliers and technicians to get functioning hardware to where it is needed most.
  •  
  • In Ghana, digital diagnostics company Redbird has launched its Covid-19 self check and resources app which will also cover Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and the US.
  • In South Africa, Epione.net is leading the charge with its primary care logistics platform response.
  •  
  • A Kauffman report titled ‘Is This The Black Swan Moment To Solve Big Problems?’ reminds us that:
  • 95% of the jobs created in the US over the past 20 years were from companies less than five years of age. Arguably this skew will be even more notable in frontier markets when we look back at 2020.
  • VC fund vintages during adverse economic periods tend to outperform. We have written extensively about why a different model to traditional VC makes sense for Africa, but the valuation discount that we are already seeing this quarter cannot be ignored. What happened in more mature emerging markets historically that led to a crisis being a catalyst?
  •  
  • SARS forced Alibaba and JD.Com online
  •  
  • The ’02 epidemic directly contributed to the birth and scale up of Chinese e-commerce. How?
  •  
  • In a look back to how SARS contributed to the birth of e-commerce in China, this post reminds us that:
  •  
  • “In 2003 e-commerce was just starting to emerge in China. After all, not many people had access to the internet. Alibaba was primarily a B2B platform, connecting US buyers with Chinese suppliers. JD.com was a chain of small electronics shops that launched an online e-commerce site…
  •  
  • “Alibaba was a four-year-old company that focused on B2B e-commerce, matching American procurement teams with Chinese suppliers. An Alibaba employee caught SARS when she was sent to attend the Canton Fair in May 2003. Alibaba’s 500+ employees were quarantined at home for twelve days and required to work from home.
  •  
  • “Many countries around the world issued travel warnings for businessmen travelling to China, and thus many turned to Alibaba’s online business to source Chinese goods. Starting in March 2003, Alibaba’s B2B e-commerce business added 4,000 new members and 9,000 listings each day, a 3-5x increase over the pre-SARS rate.”

Similarities and differences to Africa

Africa’s company formation, technology deployment and funding are on track with 2013-2014 South East Asia as outlined in our end of year report. The key differences between the regions remain large scale adoption of e-commerce due to disposable income and last-mile infrastructure constraints, and fragmented regulatory environments. The rails to solve for some of these gaps have started to emerge with technology facilitating cross border payments, regional and continent-wide economic integration and savvy founders now focusing on last-mile logistics.

SARS drove Chinese suppliers and consumers online. That is not going to happen the same way in Africa as we have seen with Jumia‘s struggle to scale. Mobile app-based commerce for specific needs is however starting to scale as we have seen with Lynk’s products and services on its Uber-like trust platform. It is difficult to pinpoint exactly which aspects of this crisis will bring down costs and behavioural barriers to a migration to online scale in Africa, but here are a few speculative guesses:

De-monetisation could accelerate as countries outside of the East African Community, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire realise that mobile money is not a luxury. Blockchain applications could finally take off with the to decreased friction they provide for consumer wallets when the value of local currency savings fall off a cliff in times of crisis.

Multiplier effects from co-operation between ventures that can plug and play via APIs to leverage each other’s platforms.

Renewable energy that is interoperable between central and microgrids. In Nigeria remote work is impossible when the average Lagosian can rely on only 45 minutes of a 60W lightbulb daily from the central grid.

Once in a decade opportunity

Critical infrastructure needs are similar across Africa’s cities. A forced migration online (Zoom, e-everything) likely brings boundaries, barriers and costs lower and leads to a hustle and innovation gear shift that is already incredibly exciting.

In sub-Saharan Africa there is already an element of “business as usual” for innovators with stretched resources and daily challenges. There will be pain, funding will become scarcer and macro-economic developments command a repricing of all assets, but for the engaged investor that is willing to roll up their sleeves and be part of the solutions demanded by the world’s fastest growing and youngest continent the opportunity to generate once in a decade returns and impact comes with high correlation and alignment.

Source: Africa: crisis a once in a decade opportunity

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Africa, COVID-19

McKinsey offers four scenarios of Covid-19’s economic impact on Africa

This article is an excerpt of a McKinsey report titled, Tackling COVID-19 in Africa


By Kartik Jayaram, Acha Leke, Amandla Ooko-Ombaka, and Ying Sunny Sun

As of March 31st, more than 770,000 cases of COVID-19 had been recorded worldwide, with nearly 40,000 deaths. The number of cases, and deaths, has been growing exponentially.

Compared to other regions, the number of recorded cases in Africa is still relatively small, totaling about 5,300 cases across 47 African countries as of March 31st (Exhibit 1). Even though the rate of transmission in Africa to date appears to be slower than that in Europe, the pandemic could take a heavy toll across the continent if containment measures do not prove effective.

Exhibit 1

Against the backdrop of this worrying public health situation, African countries will have to address three major economic challenges in the coming weeks and months:

The impact of the global pandemic on African economies. This includes disruption in global supply chains exposed to inputs from Asia, Europe and the Middle East, as well as lower demand in global markets for a wide range of African exports. Moreover, Africa is likely to experience delayed or reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) as partners from other continents redirect capital locally.

The economic impact of the spread of the virus within Africa, and of the measures that governments are taking to stem the pandemic. Travel bans and lockdowns are not only limiting the movement of people across borders and within countries, but also disrupting ways of working for many individuals, businesses and government agencies.

The collapse of the oil price, driven by geopolitics as well as reduced demand in light of the pandemic. In the month of March 2020, oil prices fell by approximately 50 percent. For net oil-exporting countries, this will result in increased liquidity issues, lost tax revenues, and currency pressure. (We should note, however, that lower oil prices will potentially have a positive economic impact for oil importing countries and consumers.)

For Africa’s economies, the implications of these challenges are far-reaching. A slowdown in overall economic growth is already being felt, and this is acute in hard-hit sectors such as tourism. Many businesses, particularly SMEs, are under significant cost pressure and face potential closure and bankruptcy. That is likely to lead to widespread job losses. At the same time, the pandemic will impact productivity across many sectors. Closures of schools and universities could create longer-term human capital issues for African economies and could disproportionately affect girls, many of whom may not return to school. Not least, the crisis is likely to reduce household expenditure and consumption significantly.

The knock-on effects for the African public sector could be severe, in terms of reduced tax revenues and limitations on access to hard currency. African governments will face rising deficits and increased pressure on currencies. In the absence of significant fiscal stimulus packages, the combined impact of these economic, fiscal, and monetary challenges could greatly reduce Africa’s GDP growth in 2020.

Four scenarios of economic impact: Africa’s GDP growth reduced by 3–8 percentage points


To gauge the possible extent of this impact, we modelled four scenarios for how differing rates of COVID-19 transmission – both globally and within Africa – would affect Africa’s economic growth.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, we project that Africa’s GDP growth would be cut to just 0.4 percent in 2020 – and this scenario is looking less and less likely by the day. In all other scenarios, we project that Africa will experience an economic contraction in 2020, with its GDP growth rate falling by between five and eight percentage points (Exhibits 2 and 3).

Exhibit 2

The four scenarios are as follows:

Scenario 1: Contained global and Africa outbreak. In this least-worst case, Africa’s average GDP growth in 2020 would be cut from 3.9 percent (the forecast prior to the crisis) to 0.4 percent. This scenario assumes that Asia experiences a continued recovery from the pandemic, and a gradual economic restart. In Africa, we assume that most countries experience isolated cases or small cluster outbreaks – but with carefully managed restrictions and a strong response, there is no widespread outbreak.

Scenario 2: Resurgent global outbreak, Africa contained. Under this scenario, Africa’s average GDP growth in 2020 would be cut by about five percentage points, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.4 percent. Here we assume that Europe and the United States continue to face significant outbreaks, while Asian countries face a surge of re-infection as they attempt to restart economic activity. In Africa, we assume that most countries experience small cluster outbreaks that are carefully managed.

Scenario 3: Contained global outbreak, Africa widespread. In this scenario, Africa’s average GDP growth in 2020 would be cut by about six percentage points, resulting in a negative growth rate of -2.1 percent. This assumes that significant outbreaks occur in most major African economies, leading to a substantial economic downturn. Globally, we assume that Asia experiences a continued recovery and a gradual economic restart, while large-scale quarantines and disruptions continue in Europe and the United States.

Scenario 4: Resurgent global outbreak, Africa widespread. In this case, Africa’s average GDP growth in 2020 would be cut by about eight percentage points, resulting in a negative growth rate of -3.9 percent. Globally, we assume that Europe and the United States continue to face significant outbreaks as China and East Asian countries face a surge of re-infection. In addition, significant outbreaks occur in most major African economies, leading to a serious economic downturn.

Exhibit 3

These scenarios do not take into account the potential effects of any fiscal stimulus packages that may be announced by African governments; these should improve the economic outlook. However, we should also note that the scenarios do not take into account currency devaluations, inflationary pressure, or recent credit ratings from Moody’s and similar bodies – which could worsen the outlook. There is no room for complacency.

Depending on the scenario, Africa’s economies could experience a loss of between $90 billion and $200 billion in 2020. Each of the three economic challenges outlined above is likely to cause large-scale disruption. The pandemic’s spread within Africa could account for just over half of this loss, driven by reduced household and business spending and travel bans. The global pandemic could account for about one third of the total loss, driven by supply-chain disruptions, a fall-off in demand for Africa’s non-oil exports, and delay or cancellation of investments from Africa’s FDI partners. Finally, oil-price effects could account for about 15 percent of the losses.

Differing impact on major African economies

While the pandemic’s economic impact – alongside the oil-price shock – will be serious right across the continent, it will be felt differently in different countries. For example, our analysis suggests that the following impacts would occur in Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya:

  • Nigeria. Across all scenarios, Nigeria is facing a likely economic contraction. In the least worst-case scenario (contained outbreak), Nigeria’s GDP growth could decline from 2.5 percent to -3.4 percent in 2020 – in other words, a decline of nearly six percentage points. That would represent a reduction in GDP of approximately $20 billion, with more than two thirds of the direct impact coming from oil-price effects, given Nigeria’s status as a major oil exporter. In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate could fall to -8.8 percent, representing a reduction in GDP of some $40 billion. The biggest driver of this loss would be a reduction in consumer spending in food and beverages, clothing, and transport.
  •  
  • South Africa. Across all scenarios, South Africa is facing a likely economic contraction. Under the contained-outbreak scenario, GDP growth could decline from 0.8 percent to -2.1 percent. This would represent a reduction in GDP of some $10 billion, with about 40 percent of that stemming from supply-chain import disruptions, which will impact manufacturing, metals and mining in particular. There will also be major impact on tourism and consumption. However, as South Africa is an oil importer, this impact will be cushioned by lower oil prices. In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, South Africa’s GDP growth could fall to -8.3 percent, representing a loss to GDP of some $35 billion. This impact would be driven by disruptions in household and business spending on transport, food and beverages, and entertainment, as well as prolonged pressure on exports. South Africa’s recent sovereign-credit downgrade is likely to exacerbate this outlook.
  •  
  • Kenya. In two out of four scenarios, Kenya is facing a likely economic contraction. Under the contained-outbreak scenario, GDP growth could decline from 5.2 percent (after accounting for the 2020 locust invasion) to 1.9 percent – representing a reduction in GDP of $3 billion. The biggest impacts in terms of loss to GDP are reductions in household and business spending (about 50 percent), disruption to supply chain for key inputs in machinery and chemicals (about 30 percent) and tourism (about 20 percent). In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, Kenya’s GDP growth rate could fall to -5 percent, representing a loss to GDP of $10 billion. As in Nigeria, disruption of consumer spend would be the biggest driver of this loss.
  •  
  • Kartik Jayaram and Acha Leke are senior partners of McKinsey & Company, based in Nairobi and Johannesburg respectively. Amandla Ooko-Ombaka is an engagement manager and Ying Sunny Sun is a partner at McKinsey; both are based in Nairobi.

Source: McKinsey offers four scenarios of Covid-19’s economic impact on Africa

 

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